National Security and Strategic Minerals: An Analysis of U.S. Dependence on Foreign Sources of Cobalt by Barry M Blechman

Author:Barry M Blechman [Blechman, Barry M]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, General
ISBN: 9780429711480
Google: fimNDwAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 44597751
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2019-03-08T00:00:00+00:00

Conclusion

Cobalt is a critical commodity, essential in the foreseeable future for the production of aircraft and missile engines, and other items necessary for the U.S. defense. At present, and in all likelihood for the remainder of the century, the United States is dependent upon nations in south-central Africa for a major share of its cobalt supply. This dependence, although in most instances of economic benefit to the United States, introduces certain vulnerabilities in the U.S. cobalt supply situation that can be exploited by foreign nations in peacetime and in war.

Given the worsening military conflict and political instability that characterizes south-central Africa, future disruptions in the supply of cobalt from this region must be assessed as relatively high. The consequences of such peacetime disruptions, however, would be relatively constrained and capable of being accommodated by normal market forces. Disruptions of 20 to 50 percent of a single year's exports from the region can be expected. They would result in substantial increases in the price of cobalt (and thus in U.S. payments abroad) but not in any meaningful decline in U.S. economic activity or in risks to the nation's security.

U.S. dependence on foreign sources of cobalt implies more severe, if less likely, dangers to the nation's security as well. Cobalt dependence provides options to the Soviet Union and other nations antagonistic to the United States, through which they might attempt to cripple this nation's industrial capability. The exercise of such options is not likely in normal times but could become a real danger should a major war break out, or appear imminent, between East and West.

During a major military conflict, the USSR could attempt to interdict exports of cobalt to the United States directly, by using its own armed forces, or indirectly, by using the forces of allied nations. But even more dangerous would be the interruption of cobalt exports to this nation and its allies during, or immediately preceding, a period of mobilization for a major war. At such a time, demand for cobalt would rise rapidly, supplies would be constrained even in the absence of a deliberate disruption, and backlogs would already exist for cobalt-bearing materials and parts. In the absence of governmental policies to prepare for such contingencies, the results could be chaos in the market, huge increases in price, and long delays for essential defense components. A disruption at a time of mobilization would certainly mean a delay in U.S. ability to prepare for war. And it might even make such a war more imminent, if the cobalt shortage contributed to the enemy's perception that it was in an advantageous position that would not persist indefinitely.

There is a clear need to ensure against such contingencies. The expenditure of modest sums in normal times could well avert serious damage to the nation's security in certain contingencies and even help to prevent such contingencies from ever becoming realities. The two policies most relevant for protecting against cobalt supply interruptions during wars or mobilization for wars are stockpiling and encouraging the domestic production of cobalt.

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